Going Underwater? Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics
通过理论模型和罗德岛入户调查，发现居民普遍低估洪水风险且按风险认知和宜居价值分类居住，导致沿海房价被高估6%-13%，并量化了风险误判和保险改革带来的配置低效与分配后果。
Abstract How do climate risk beliefs affect coastal housing markets? This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence. First, we build a dynamic housing market model and show that belief heterogeneity can reconcile prior mixed evidence on flood risk capitalization. Second, we implement a door-to-door survey in Rhode Island, finding significant flood risk underestimation and sorting based on risk perceptions and amenity values. Third, we estimate that coastal prices exceed fundamentals by 6$\%$-13$\%$ in our benchmark area, with potentially higher overvaluation in other locations. Finally, we quantify both allocative inefficiency and distributional consequences arising from flood risk misperceptions and insurance policy reform. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.