Do patents really foster innovation in the pharmaceutical sector? Results from an evolutionary, agent-based model
通过演化、基于主体的模型模拟不同专利制度对制药行业创新和竞争的影响，发现专利强度和期限应设为最低水平，即使考虑研发激励和信息披露效应也是如此。
The role of the patent system in the pharmaceutical sector is highly debated also due to its strong public health implications. In this paper we develop an evolutionary, agent-based model of the pharmaceutical industry to explore the impact of different configurations of the patent system upon innovation and competition. The model is able to replicate the main stylized facts of the drug industry as emergent properties. We perform policy experiments to assess the impact of different Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) regimes changing the breadth and length of patents. Results tend to point against a strong patent system. Simulation experiments suggest that the extent and duration of patents shall, if anything, be set to minimum levels. This holds even when one assumes a strong response of R&D incentives to appropriability conditions and when taking into account information disclosure effects triggered by patents.