A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law
构建了产出增长与失业率变化相互依赖的动态空间面板数据模型，利用荷兰12省1974-2018年数据估计，发现奥肯定律主要由产出增长影响失业的路径主导，且降低失业所需增长量取决于空间溢出和产出乘数效应。
A system of two dynamic spatial panel data model equations is developed in which output growth and the change in the unemployment rate are interdependent. The parameters of the model are estimated by recently developed maximum likelihood techniques for multivariate spatial econometric models, using data of twelve provinces in the Netherlands over the period 1974–2018, covering four major economic downturns of the Dutch economy. By using time-cumulative marginal effects derived from the impulse response function of this model, it is found that Okun's law is dominated by the relationship that runs from output growth to unemployment. The amount of growth that is needed to reduce unemployment by one percentage point is shown to depend on the extent to which spillover effects to neighboring regions and output multiplier effects are accounted for.