Extending Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting for NEMS
美国能源部与西弗吉尼亚大学合作开发了NETL/WVU计量经济投入产出模型，用于扩展能源经济模型，预测GDP、就业和劳动收入等宏观经济影响。
To comprehensively model the macroeconomic impacts that result from changes in long-term energy-economy forecasts, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) partnered with West Virginia University (WVU)’s Regional Research Institute to develop the NETL/WVU econometric input-output (ECIO) model. The NETL/WVU ECIO model is an impacts forecasting model that functions as an extension of the U.S. energy-economic models available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Market Allocation (MARKAL) model. The ECIO model integrates a macroeconomic econometric forecasting model and an input-output accounting framework along derived forecast scenarios detailing a baseline of the U.S. ener-gy-economy and an alternative forecast on how power generation resources can meet future levels of energy demand to generate estimates of the impacts to gross domestic product, employment, and labor income. This manuscript provides an overview of the model design, assumptions, and standard outputs.