The Role of Uncertainty in Shaping Individual Preferences for Residential Energy Renovation Decisions
通过离散选择实验研究不确定性如何阻碍家庭进行节能改造，发现未来能源价格和改造质量的不确定性会降低改造意愿，且影响因风险偏好而异，建议政策支持保险方案以提升改造率。
This article examines a crucial question that has been raised in recent years in both policy and economic literature: the role of uncertainty as a barrier to energy retrofit decisions. We develop a discrete choice experiment to elicit preferences for energy renovation measures. This methodologically innovative experiment design includes two insurance schemes covering potential sources of uncertainty as attributes of the energy retrofit alternatives. We use a mixed logit model to investigate the nature of systematic heterogeneity in household preferences for attributes of energy retrofit solutions. The article shows that uncertainties related to future energy pricing and retrofit quality are negatively perceived during energy-renova-tion decision making. This impact varies according to household characteristics such as risk aversion and perceptions of the economic context. The results suggest that public policies should support and accompany the development of insurance schemes to increase energy renovation rates.