A Compound Real Option Approach for Determining the Optimal Investment Path for RPV-Storage Systems
提出复合最小二乘蒙特卡洛方法，评估延迟投资和扩容两种灵活性的复合价值，帮助住宅光伏-储能系统投资者做出更优的多阶段投资决策。
The use of residential Photovoltaic-Storage systems may produce large benefits to owners and has expanded rapidly in recent years. Nonetheless, large uncertainties regarding the profitability of these systems make it necessary to incorporate flexibilities in their economic evaluations. This paper offers a new method to evaluate the compound flexibility of both the option of delaying investments and the option of further expanding the capacity of solar photovoltaic modules and batteries during the investment horizon. Flexibility is modeled as a compound real option, whose value is computed using a novel method that we call Compound Least Squares Monte Carlo (CLSM). The model is applied to the investment decisions associated to a residential Photovoltaic-Storage system. Results suggest that investors should use the proposed CLSM method in the economic valuation of multi-stage projects, since considering only a single flexibility could promote sub-optimal decisions. Moreover, in our case study, we show that it is optimal to break the investment down into two steps or more in 36% of future scenarios, on average.