A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines
研究发现，1870年至2016年间全球报纸文章标题中的叙事信息变化能预测金融危机，其预测能力超越传统宏观经济和金融指标。
We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. Feature contribution analysis and crisis case studies reveal that the new indicators capture more detailed, but still generalizable information on the buildup of crises.