Export Growth - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries:Real or False Concern?
研究了2000-2014年77个发展中国家国内燃料价格上涨对出口增长的影响，发现汽油或柴油价格上涨会抑制非燃料出口，影响在两年内消退，且在高能源依赖和电力短缺国家更显著。
This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, with the impact phasing out within two years after the shock. The impact is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and where access to electricity is limited. Further, large fuel price shocks do not seem to lead to disproportionately large changes in exports, suggesting that neither the gradualism nor the shock therapy approach in fuel subsidy reforms dominates. In countries where the export sector is vulnerable to fuel price shocks, appropriate mitigating measures should be designed to smooth the transition to higher fuel prices.