Pricing carbon in the aviation sector: Evidence from the European emissions trading system
利用欧盟排放交易体系政策变化，通过双重差分法分析2010-2016年欧洲航班数据，发现碳定价使受管制航线排放减少4.7%，短途航线减少10.7%，低成本航空公司减少11%，但未降低行业绝对排放。
A policy change in the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) provides us with a unique opportunity to measure the impact of carbon pricing on aviation, the most climate-intensive mode of transport. We implement a difference-in-differences strategy on a sample based on all flights within Europe from 2010 to 2016 to examine the causal impact of the EU ETS on emissions and supply. We find that the EU ETS reduced emissions by 4.7% in the regulated routes relative to the counterfactual. When we restrict the sample to short-haul flights, routes on which competition from other means of transport may exist (less than 1,000 km), the reduction in emissions is 10.7%. Finally, the reduction in emissions is also high for low-cost airlines (−11%) but it is not statistically significant for network airlines. In sum, the EU ETS has helped to mitigate emission growth by 3 Mt CO2 per year during the period analyzed, but not to reduce absolute emissions in the sector, as needed.