Economic Slowdown and Housing Dynamics in China: A Tale of Two Investments by Firms
研究了中国住房繁荣与经济放缓的关系，构建动态新凯恩斯模型分析企业在生产资本和住房之间的投资选择，发现负向生产率冲击导致住房需求上升，房价上涨通过抵押效应和挤出效应影响实际投资，且挤出效应占主导，房价呈逆周期特征。
Abstract We study the housing boom and economic slowdown in China in a dynamic New Keynesian model. The model features a novel channel of firms' dynamic portfolio choice between physical and housing investment. Housing assets earn a positive return and can be used as collateral for the firm's external finances. A negative productivity shock decreases the relative return of production capital, which translates into a housing boom by increasing the firm's housing demand. A rise in house prices then generates competing effects on real investment: it raises the firm's leverage due to the collateral effect and depresses the firm's demand for physical capital because of the crowding‐out effect. After calibrating the model for the Chinese economy, our quantitative exercise suggests the former effect is dominated by the latter, resulting in countercyclical housing prices. The policy analysis shows that the capital subsidization policy targeting house prices performs better than other macro‐economic policies.