Asymmetric Attention
研究发现家庭、企业和专业预测者的预期既从近期事件外推，又对新信息反应不足。作者提出基于有限注意力的理性外推理论，其中对顺周期变量的不对称注意力能解释外推与反应不足的共存，并放大商业周期波动。
We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations.