Know Where to Invest: Platform Risk Evaluation in Online Lending
研究了网络借贷中平台风险的评估问题，识别了四种预测信息类型，并采用生存分析模型预测平台违约与否及时间，对市场管理者和出借人有实际指导意义。
Practice- and policy-oriented abstract for “Research Spotlights” Although enjoying rapid development, online lending also endures some unusual risk, that is, platform risk. We address a new problem at the macro platform level, platform risk evaluation, and explore types of information and methods that are effective in predicting platform risk. We identify four types of information, that is, platform characteristic, risk management, commercial competition, and online word of mouth, and examine their utilities, separately and jointly, in predicting platform risk. We also propose the use of survival analysis, especially the mixture survival model, in predicting whether and when a platform will default. We carry out a cross-stage analysis using data crawled from two leading web portals for online lending in China with the two stages separated by the recent dramatic policy intervention. The results reveal the differences among the four identified factors in terms of predictive utility, the heterogeneity between the two types of default platforms, and differences between the start-up and stable periods of platform development. Based on the results, we derive some insights and examine the cross-stage changes and commonalities. We provide both lessons learned from the past and practical implications for market managers and lenders in the current online lending market.