Agricultural Productivity and Fertility Rates
利用印度尼西亚油棕榈繁荣作为实证背景，研究发现1996-2016年间油棕榈扩张对生育率有持续的负向影响，这源于农业利润增长带动消费、非农部门扩张、教育回报提高和入学率上升，表明农业生产力增长能加速生育率转变。
We analyze the link between agricultural productivity growth and fertility rates, using the oil palm boom in Indonesia as an empirical setting. We find consistent negative effects of oil palm expansion on fertility during the period 1996-2016. This finding appears to be linked to rising farm profits that led to consumption growth, an expansion of the non-agricultural sector, increasing wage returns to education and higher school enrollment. Together, these findings suggest that agricultural productivity growth can play an important role in accelerating the fertility transition, as long as the economic benefits are large enough to translate into local economic development.