Econometric Analysis of Switching Expectations in UK Inflation*
用英国数据估计了一个菲利普斯曲线模型，其中通胀预期在回顾型和前瞻型方法之间切换，权重随时间变化，发现该模型样本内拟合优于其他模型，部分时期预测也更好。
Abstract We estimate with UK data a Phillips curve model with backward‐looking and forward‐looking methods of determining inflation expectations and with agents switching between these based on their recent performance. We find that, while on average backward‐looking and forward‐looking methods have about equal weight, there are considerable movements in the weight given to each method. We show this model has better in‐sample fit than other Phillips curve models and this is robust to the methodology chosen. The model out‐of‐sample forecasts on certain dates do better than other Phillips curve models and the Atkeson and Ohanian model.