Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization
研究了全球农业国家中降雨对农业产出的倒U型影响，以及降雨对民主化的U型短期效应，该效应在长期持续存在。
We examine the effect of rainfall on agricultural output and democratization in the world’s most agricultural countries. As in the agricultural economics literature, we find that the relationship between rainfall and agricultural output has an inverted U‐shape, as agriculture is harmed by both droughts and very wet conditions. We also find the effect of rainfall on agricultural output to be transitory. The relationship between rainfall and democratization is U‐shaped in the short run, and this effect persists in the long run. Hence democratic transitions outlast the (transitory) rainfall shocks that started the democratization process. The U‐shaped relationship between rainfall and democratization is consistent with rainfall affecting democratization through its (inverted‐U‐shaped) effect on agricultural output.