Effects of recent minimum wage policies in California and nationwide: Results from a pre‐specified analysis plan
本研究依据预先注册的分析计划，评估加州及全美城市最低工资上涨对就业和低收入人群比例的影响，发现对青少年就业有轻微负面效应，但对低收入比例影响有限。
Abstract We analyze the impacts of recent city minimum wage increases in California and nationwide, following a pre‐analysis plan (PAP) registered prior to the release of data covering two years of minimum wage increases. For California cities, we find a hint of negative employment effects. Nationally, we find some evidence of disemployment effects for teens, but not young adults or high school dropouts. City‐specific analyses provide limited evidence of adverse effects on the share low‐income, but the pooled city analysis does not; the national analysis generally finds no impact on the share low‐income, except for reductions in the share near‐poor, although that may at least partly reflect prior trends. All told, we view the results as providing neither strong evidence of substantial adverse effects of city minimum wages, nor strong evidence of substantial beneficial effects.