Risk in Time: The Intertwined Nature of Risk Taking and Time Discounting
提出一个统一框架，解释风险承担与时间贴现行为之间的系统性交互，涵盖延迟依赖的风险容忍、不确定性解决顺序偏好等众多反常现象，对行为经济学和金融决策研究者有参考价值。
Abstract Standard economic models view risk taking and time discounting as two independent dimensions of decision making. However, mounting experimental evidence demonstrates striking parallels in patterns of risk taking and time discounting behavior and systematic interaction effects, which suggests that there may be common underlying forces driving these interactions. Here, we show that the inherent uncertainty associated with future prospects together with individuals’ proneness to probability weighting generates a unifying framework for explaining a large number of puzzling behavioral findings: delay-dependent risk tolerance, aversion to sequential resolution of uncertainty, preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, the differential discounting of risky and certain outcomes, hyperbolic discounting, subadditive discounting, and the order dependence of prospect valuation. Furthermore, all these phenomena can be accommodated by the same set of preference parameter values and plausible levels of inherent uncertainty.