The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income
利用1980-1982年经济衰退的严重程度在县和出生队列间的差异，发现童年经历衰退会显著降低大学学位获得率和成年后收入，导致每年数百万大学毕业生减少和巨额收入损失。
This paper examines the long-run effects of the 1980-1982 recession on education and income. Using confidential Census data, I estimate difference-in-differences regressions that exploit variation across counties in recession severity and across cohorts in age at the time of the recession. For individuals age 0-10 in 1979, a 10 percent decrease in earnings per capita in their county of birth reduces four-year college degree attainment by 15 percent and earnings in adulthood by 5 percent. Simple calculations suggest that, in aggregate, the 1980-1982 recession led to 1.3-2.8 million fewer college graduates and $66-$139 billion less earned income per year.