Structural booms
提出经济长期波动的全新解释：长期波动并非偏离增长路径，而是由对未来生产率预期的罕见深刻变化引发的路径迂回，这种变化可由股市波动近似捕捉。基于OECD国家数据，发现股价与就业或失业率之间存在长期历史关系，且一国股市强弱及就业对预期的反应程度与其制度相关，尤其是社团主义制度可能阻碍企业家利用预期生产率提升。
Summary Structural booms Productive expectations and assets valuationsThe paper proposes a new interpretation of long swings in economic activity. Instead of deviations from a trend growth path explained by misperceptions, long swings are seen as detours in the path itself provoked by rare and deep changes in expectations of future productivity. And such changes are approximately captured by swings in stock markets. In a large sample of OECD countries, the paper finds long-term historical relationships between share prices and employment or the rate of unemployment. The results suggest that the recent strength of a nation’s stock markets and the responsiveness of employment are related to its institutions. In particular, corporatist institutions are likely to impede or obstruct entrepreneurs from taking advantage of expected productivity improvements. In contrast, a well-developed stock market – in addition to a young, well-educated labour force – may help both in the creation of profit opportunities as well as in enabling and emboldening firms to increase hiring.— Edmund Phelps and Gylfi Zoega