Slow Debt, Deep Recessions
研究发现企业信贷滞后GDP增长约一年，导致衰退期间高杠杆和缓慢去杠杆。模型表明，企业使用风险长期债务会复制这一现象，并通过高违约率与低投资的负反馈循环放大衰退，拖慢复苏。
Business credit lags GDP growth by about one year. This contributes to high leverage during recessions and slow deleveraging. We show that a model in which firms use risky long-term debt replicates this slow adjustment of firm debt. In the model, slow-moving debt has important effects for real activity. High levels of firm debt issued during expansions are only gradually reduced during recessions. This generates an adverse feedback loop between high default rates and low investment and thereby amplifies the downturn. Sluggish deleveraging slows down the recovery.