Does terrorism make people pessimistic? Evidence from a natural experiment
利用非洲的自然实验，发现低伤亡恐怖袭击使当地居民对未来生活条件的悲观预期提高11个百分点，且该效应在宗教袭击和农村地区更强，但可能使信念更准确。
This paper uses a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of low-casualty terrorist attacks on pessimistic beliefs in Africa. Distinct from fear, pessimism has been found to hinder optimal economic decisions and well-being. By comparing survey responses of people interviewed in the same area immediately before and after a terrorist attack, we find that terrorism increases pessimism about future living conditions by 11 percentage points. The effect is not driven by the direct damages of attacks or people's expectations of the national economy, and is stronger for attacks targeting religious figures and among respondents living in rural areas. Further analysis suggests that this effect tends to shift people to more accurate beliefs. Our results thus show that even low-casualty terrorist attacks have a substantial impact on people's beliefs.