The consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK’s international trade
使用可计算一般均衡模型分析《贸易与合作协定》对英国贸易的影响，发现该协定将使英国总出口减少约7%、进口减少约14%，纺织、车辆和服务业受冲击最大。
Abstract: We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK–EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors’ exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy.