The multivariate Polya distribution in combat modeling
研究了多元波利亚分布（MPD）在作战模型中的应用，用于随机分配敌方目标给作战单位。基于六组实际作战数据（空战、坦克、潜艇战）验证了MPD的有效性，并指出多项分布分配过于简单。通过模拟确定最优分配以最小化作战成本。
This paper investigates the multivariate Polya distribution (MPD) for application in combat models for which enemy targets must be randomly assigned to fighting units. Six sets of actual combat data motivate the allocation model. Scenarios include air-to-air combat, tank, and submarine warfare. Goodness of fit tests are derived which verify the validity of the MPD, and reinforce the notion that multinomial allocation is too simplistic for such combat models. Simulations to determine optimal allocations for minimal combat cost are applied in order to illustrate the role of the MPD in combat modeling. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons,Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 1–17, 2001