Does the U.S. president affect the stock market?
研究发现，对美国总统工作的净不满意度高会导致后续股票回报低，尤其在政治不确定性高和市场情绪低迷时，这解释了“总统之谜”。
Previous research shows that Democrat- and Republican-leaning investors hold different stock market expectations. In this paper, I identify a novel channel through which political opinions affect investor behavior. Instead of political affiliation, I consider nonpartisan evaluations of the executive from presidential approval rating polls. I find that large net disapproval over the U.S. president’s job is followed by low stock returns, especially in times of high political uncertainty and low market-wide sentiment. Notably, this mechanism explains away Santa-Clara and Valkanov’s (2003) “presidential puzzle.” Overall, the findings suggest that nonpartisan political views have a substantial impact on stock prices.