Budgetary and financial effects of the EC milk quota system
利用CAP模型分析1984年欧共体牛奶配额政策，发现该政策使牛奶部门净支出减少约40%，但总净支出仅减半，纳税人节省远超奶农损失。
<sec> Results are reported from using an existing model of the CAP to analyse the dairy quota scheme introduced by the European Community in April 1984. Modifications to the model for this purpose include the use of quota-equivalent prices to capture the effect of dairy quotas on other enterprises within the agricultural sector. The quota policy is contrasted with a reference policy chosen to represent the continued evolution of pre-1984 policy. Results are presented for the three years 1984, 1985 and 1988. Constraining milk production causes the Community to become more self-sufficient in cereals, but slightly less so in livestock products. By 1988, net FEOGA expenditure in the milk sector is estimated to be around 40&percnt; less with the quota policy than under the reference policy, though total net FEOGA expenditure is reduced by only half this amount. As would be expected, taxpayers savings are estimated to exceed greatly the loss suffered by dairy producers. </sec>