深度转型:大规模生产历史演进的混合方法研究

Deep transitions: A mixed methods study of the historical evolution of mass production

Technological Forecasting and Social Change · 2022
被引 14
ABS 3

中文导读

本文结合定性历史叙事与定量文本挖掘,评估深度转型框架关于大规模生产规则演化的命题,对理解工业社会长期变迁有参考价值。

Abstract

Industrial societies contain a range of socio-technical systems fulfilling functions such as the provision of energy, food, mobility, housing, healthcare, finance and communications. The recent Deep Transitions (DT) framework outlines a series of propositions on how the multi-system co-evolution over 250 years of these systems has contributed to several current social and ecological crises. Drawing on evolutionary institutionalism, the DT framework places a special emphasis on the concepts of ‘rules’ and ‘meta-rules’ as coordination mechanisms within and across socio-technical systems. In this paper, we employ a mixed-method approach to provide an empirical assessment of the propositions of the DT framework. We focus on the historical evolution of mass production from the 18th century to the present. Combining a qualitative narrative based on a synthesis of secondary historical literature with a quantitative text mining-based analysis of the corpus of Scientific American (1845–2019), we map the emergence and alignment of rules underpinning mass production. Our study concludes by reflecting on important methodological lessons for the application of text mining techniques to examine large-scale and long-term socio-technical dynamics.

产业经济学技术变迁制度演化社会经济系统