The climate resilience cycle: Using scenario analysis to inform climate‐resilient business strategies
针对企业缺乏情景分析实施流程和气候变化知识的问题，研究将韧性概念分解为稳定域和变化域，开发了一个五步实施流程（气候韧性循环），帮助企业在跨学科团队协作下构建气候韧性战略。
Abstract Climate change affects the business environment, and companies need future‐oriented information to build climate resilience. To this end, companies are encouraged to conduct climate change scenario analysis, as recommended by the Task Force on Climate‐Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). However, companies' actual adoption of this practice is limited as they lack a straightforward scenario analysis implementation process and relevant climate change knowledge. This research develops an implementation process by clarifying the concept of resilience into a stability and a change domain and by specifying the type of focal questions for these two domains. Next, a scenario typology guides the selection of reference scenarios, and two standard scenario methods guide the tailoring of these reference scenarios to company‐specific scenarios. By structuring this process in five steps and specifying input and process requirements, we provide an implementation process called the climate resilience cycle. By applying the cycle in transdisciplinary teams of climate change experts and company staff with knowledge about the company value chain, we bring in the required knowledge. To become climate resilient, the outcomes of the climate resilience cycle need to be integrated in the business planning and the overall company strategy. We argue that implementing the cycle as a new company routine contributes to the development of dynamic capabilities like sensing, seizing and transforming, which have been proven to be essential for integrating sustainability in company strategies. Once begun, we show how the cycle can become part of a company strategy process.