Learning and investment under demand uncertainty in container shipping
研究需求不确定性如何放大集装箱航运业的投资周期，通过构建动态寡头模型，发现企业学习过程会加剧投资波动，对理解航运市场周期有参考价值。
Abstract This article investigates the role of demand uncertainty in explaining cyclical investment fluctuations in the container shipping industry. I develop and estimate a dynamic oligopoly model with learning in which firms choose investment and scrapping. In this model, firms are uncertain about the true parameters in the underlying process for demand, and form and revise their beliefs using available information. Counterfactual analysis reveals that uncertainty about the demand process amplifies investment cycles through (i) leading firms to revise beliefs more drastically as they experience demand fluctuations, and (ii) intensifying strategic incentives among firms.