Yellow Vests, Pessimistic Beliefs, and Carbon Tax Aversion
基于代表性调查，研究发现法国黄背心运动后民众普遍反对碳税加分红政策，高估自身损失、误判政策累进性且不认可其环境效果，而信息干预虽能提升支持但效果有限。
Using a representative survey, we find that after the Yellow Vests movement, French people would largely reject a tax and dividend policy, i.e., a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to each adult. They overestimate their net monetary losses, wrongly think that the policy is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. We show that changing people’s beliefs can substantially increase support. Although significant, the effects of our informational treatments on beliefs are small. Indeed, the respondents that oppose the tax tend to discard positive information about it, which is consistent with distrust, uncertainty, or motivated reasoning.