Which Findings Should Be Published?
在期刊版面稀缺的条件下,研究了最优的实证发现发表规则,提出应发表能充分改变信念的极端结果,并考虑成本效益分析来确定临界值。
Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one- or two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study’s findings.