Nudging a Pseudo‐Science Towards a Science—The Role of Statistics in a Rainfall Enhancement Trial in Oman
本文分析了2013-2018年在阿曼哈杰尔山脉进行的电离增雨试验，通过统计建模评估电离对降雨的影响，发现电离使下风向70公里内雨量计的正降雨量显著增加16.23%至17.64%。
Summary Although cloud seeding is a commonly used and plausible method for rainfall enhancement, its practical efficacy has not been established for seeding of convective clouds with hygroscopic materials. Other methods of rainfall enhancement are viewed as much less plausible. Thus, although increased electrical charge has been shown to enhance precipitation in cloud chamber experiments, exactly how ionisation of clouds can increase rainfall in the open atmosphere remains conjectural. A trial of the efficacy of ionisation for rainfall enhancement in the Hajar Mountains of Oman was carried out over 2013–2018. This paper provides some background to this non‐mainstream approach to increasing rainfall, showing how statistical modelling of rainfall data might be used to nudge rainfall enhancement via ionisation towards a more scientifically acceptable status. Analysis of the data collected in the trial shows that ionisation led to a statistically significant enhancement in positive rainfall in gauges located up to 70 km downwind of the ionisers. A headline analysis specified prior to commencement of the trial resulted in an estimate of 16.23% enhancement relative to rainfall that would have fallen without any ionisation, while a more sophisticated after the event analysis increased this estimate to 17.64%.