On the Experimental Robustness of the Allais Paradox
基于29项研究中的81个实验数据，发现阿莱悖论在特定实验条件下（如高假设报酬、中等结果接近最高结果、以概率分布呈现彩票）更易出现，而在风险彩票中概率质量在最低和最高结果间均分时则可能逆转。
The Allais Paradox, or the common consequence effect, is a well-known behavioral regularity in individual decision-making under risk. Data from 81 experiments reported in 29 studies reveal that the Allais Paradox is a fragile empirical finding. The Allais Paradox is likely to be observed in experiments with high hypothetical payoffs, the medium outcome being close to the highest outcome and when lotteries are presented as a probability distribution (not in a compound form). The Allais Paradox is likely to be reversed in experiments when the probability mass is equally split between the lowest and highest outcomes in risky lotteries.