Attitudes to Uncertainty in a Strategic Setting*
通过实验研究人们在战略互动中面对他人行为不确定性时的决策，发现多数人违背主观期望效用理论，但未表现出个体决策中常见的稳定模糊态度。
Much uncertainty in life relates to the behaviour of others in interactive environments. This article tests some implications of subjective expected utility theory (Savage, 1954) in an experimental strategic setting where there is uncertainty about the actions of other players. In this environment, a large majority of our participants violate subjective expected utility theory. However, they do not exhibit the sorts of consistent ‘attitude to ambiguity’ found in individual decision experiments. We discuss three possible explanations of their behaviour: non‐linear transformation of probabilities; noise in responses; and/or systematic biases in the way that individuals generate subjective probabilities.