警察局对犯罪的地域效应:来自警察局关闭的证据

The place-based effects of police stations on crime: Evidence from station closures

Journal of Public Economics · 2022
被引 32
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

研究通过关闭地方警察局来集中警力对犯罪的影响,发现住宅区汽车盗窃和入室盗窃增加,原因是警察可见度降低削弱了威慑力。

Abstract

Many countries consolidate their police forces by closing down local police stations. Police stations represent an important and visible aspect of the organization of police forces. We provide novel evidence on the effect of centralizing police offices through the closure of local police stations on crime outcomes. Combining matching with a difference-in-differences specification, we find an increase in reported car theft and burglary in residential properties. Our results are consistent with a negative shift in perceived detection risks and are driven by heterogeneous station characteristics. We can rule out alternative explanations such as incapacitation, crime displacement, and changes in police employment or strategies at the regional level. We argue that criminals are less deterred due to a lower visibility of the local police.

警察站关闭犯罪率威慑效应准自然实验