Market Returns and Interim Risk in Mergers
研究发现并购交易在完成前存在“过渡期风险”，该风险随市场涨跌不对称变化：市场上涨时交易倾向于重新谈判，市场暴跌时则倾向于取消，且受支付方式和合同阶段影响。
A primary concern in mergers and acquisitions is the risk the deal may be cancelled before it is completed. We document that “interim risk” varies asymmetrically with the aggregate market return. Deals tend to be renegotiated when the market rises, but cancelled when the market crashes. These effects are conditional on the method of payment and the contracting stage of the deal, consistent with a mechanism of ex post renegotiation. Variation in interim risk over time alters the method of payment in mergers and the firms that are targeted and acquired. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Supplemental Material: The e-companion and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4315 .