Safe Assets
研究了34个OECD国家安全资产占总资产的比例平均为37%,且该比例随时间相对稳定;构建了一个包含罕见灾难和风险厌恶的异质性主体模型,解释了安全资产比率、无风险利率和股权溢价等事实,并发现李嘉图等价成立,公共债券对私人债券的挤出系数约为-0.5。
Abstract This paper investigates the quantity of safe assets. First, we estimate that the average safe-asset ratio (ratio of safe to total assets) in 34 OECD countries was 37% in 2015. Further, we document that this ratio is relatively stable over time. Second, we build a heterogeneous-agent model with rare disasters and risk aversion coefficients that accounts for (i) the average level of the safe-asset ratio; (ii) the stability of this ratio over time; (iii) the observed risk-free rate of around 1.0% per year; and (iv) the empirical unlevered equity premium of about 4.2%. The model also replicates the observed highly concentrated distributions of wealth and equity. Finally, Ricardian equivalence holds in our model: issuing additional government bonds has no effect on rates of return and the net quantity of safe assets. Surprisingly, the crowding-out coefficient for private bonds with respect to public bonds is around −0.5, a value found in empirical studies.