Updating the theory of industrial marketing: Industrial marketing as a Bayesian process of belief-updating
本文提出将产业营销重新概念化为一个贝叶斯信念更新过程，强调管理者市场信念的形成与基于市场证据的持续更新，有助于理解不确定环境下的市场学习，并衍生出营销方法类型学。
While industrial marketing often comprises a process that, at least in principle, mirrors Bayesian reasoning, the notion of Bayesian inference has predominantly been utilized in the marketing field as a methodological tool. This article suggests that the practice of industrial marketing itself should be (re)conceptualized as a Bayesian process of belief-updating that entails a continuous cognitive cycle of formulation of hypotheses (i.e., beliefs about the market) and the subsequent updating of those hypotheses through exposure to market evidence (e.g., data from the market). A Bayesian perspective on industrial marketing enables a synthesis of a broad body of extant research as well as a focus on the interconnection between executives' market beliefs (theories-in-use) and belief-updating (assessing the validity of those beliefs in view of market evidence). A view of industrial marketing as a Bayesian process not only enhances our understanding in general but also fosters insights into market learning in uncertain and volatile situations. A Bayesian conceptualization suggests a new understanding of industrial marketing that also informs a typology of marketing approaches. We outline opportunities for developing a better understanding of the Bayesian foundation of industrial marketing.