Path dependence and stagnation in a classical growth model
将技术进步函数嵌入古典增长模型，研究参数永久变化和疫情等暂时冲击的影响，发现新自由主义下的长期停滞主要由投资减少和工人议价能力下降驱动，而非技术或人口增长放缓。
Abstract This paper embeds a technical progress function in a classical growth model and studies the effects of permanent changes in parameters and temporary shocks such as pandemics. Technical change is driven by dynamic economies of scale and responds to distributional forces: the wage share regulates labour-saving technical change and employment regulates its capital-using bias. The model features path dependence in the employment-population rate and the output-capital ratio. Population growth and distribution can respond to the employment rate. Interpreted through the model, secular stagnation under neoliberal capitalism has been driven by a combination of diminished investment and reduced worker bargaining power more than by slower technical change and population growth. A temporary unfavourable shock to the output-capital ratio will permanently reduce the employment rate. In the fully endogenous model, this will increase the profit share and reduce the rates of technical change, capital accumulation, and population growth.