Investment in farming under uncertainty and decoupled support: a real options approach
构建实物期权模型，分析共同农业政策中的脱钩支付如何影响农业投资的时机与规模，发现脱钩支付会促使农民提前投资但降低产能，同时增加土地期权价值并减少收入波动。
Abstract We develop a real options model to assess the impact of decoupled payments on agricultural investments. The context that we are addressing is the one set by the Common Agricultural Policy where farmers are eligible for decoupled payments as long as their land is properly maintained. We show that decoupled payments are non-neutral with respect to choices concerning timing and capacity. We find that they (i) induce earlier investment with lower productive capacity; (ii) increase the value of the investment option associated with land and (iii) reduce the volatility of farm income. A numerical exercise complements our theoretical analysis.