Discounting Disentangled
调查200多位专家，将社会折现率的分歧分解为纯时间偏好、财富效应和资本回报等部分，发现多数专家不遵循简单拉姆齐规则，但对2%的中位折现率有超四分之三的共识。
The economic values of investing in long-term public projects are highly sensitive to the social discount rate (SDR). We surveyed over 200 experts to disentangle disagreement on the risk-free SDR into its component parts, including pure time preference, the wealth effect, and return to capital. We show that the majority of experts do not follow the simple Ramsey Rule, a widely used theoretical discounting framework, when recommending SDRs. Despite disagreement on discounting procedures and point values, we obtain a surprising degree of consensus among experts, with more than three-quarters finding the median risk-free SDR of 2 percent acceptable.