A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests
提出一种基于马尔可夫链的方法，利用公开网站数据估计选手技能并模拟比赛过程，预测综合格斗结果，其准确性可与博彩公司赔率媲美，可用于制定投注策略。
In this paper, we present a new methodology for forecasting the results of mixed martial arts contests. Our approach utilises data scraped from freely available websites to estimate fighters’ skills in various key aspects of the sport. With these skill estimates, we simulate the contest as an actual fight using Markov chains, rather than predicting a binary outcome. We compare the model’s accuracy to that of the bookmakers using their historical odds and show that the model can be used as the basis of a successful betting strategy.