The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity
利用美国州级数据，通过结构向量自回归模型分析COVID-19传播、政府健康管控与经济支持政策以及经济活动之间的因果关系，发现这些政策能有效遏制疫情且不导致长期经济收缩。
This paper empirically investigates the causal linkages between COVID-19 spread, government health containment and economic support policies, and economic activity in the U.S. up to the introduction of vaccines in early 2021. We model their joint dynamics as generated by a structural vector autoregression and estimate it using U.S. state-level data. We identify structural shocks to the variables by making assumptions on their short-run relation consistent with salient epidemiological and economic features of COVID-19. We isolate the direct impact of COVID-19 spread and policy responses on economic activity by controlling for demand fluctuations using disaggregate exports data. We find that health containment and economic support policies are highly effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19 without leading to a long-term contraction of economic activity.