Pigouvian Cycles
研究发现，当前和预期的失业率有助于估计全要素生产率新闻的影响，使一般均衡理性预期模型产生庇古周期：产出、消费、投资、就业和实际工资的联动大部分由全要素生产率的噪音解释。
Current and expected unemployment rates contain information that is highly useful to estimate the effect of news about TFP and to allow a general equilibrium rational expectations model to generate Pigouvian cycles: a large fraction of the comovement of output, consumption, investment, employment, and real wages is explained by noise about TFP. These results emerge because of the low-frequency negative relationship between unemployment and TFP growth. The model predicts that the start (end ) of most US recessions is associated with agents realizing that previous enthusiastic (lukewarm) expectations about future TFP would not be met.