Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?*
构建一般均衡职业选择模型，研究乐观情绪对创业者和工人收入的影响。校准英国数据发现，乐观可解释英国创业收入之谜的一半以上。
Abstract In this paper, we apply a general equilibrium occupational choice model to the study of the impact of optimism on the earnings of entrepreneurs and workers. We extend the work of Lucas (1978 Bell Journal of Economics 9 , 508–523) by assuming a fraction of individuals are optimistic about their ability as entrepreneurs. The model shows that optimism leads to a misallocation of talent and inputs, which raises input prices and lowers output. The model is calibrated to match salient features of the UK economy and the British Household Panel Survey. The calibration shows that optimism can account for more than half of the size of the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle in the UK.