Reevaluating the Long-Term Impact of In Utero Exposure to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
质疑Almond(2006)关于1918年流感大流行子宫内暴露降低1919年出生队列成年社会经济地位的观点,发现该队列本身来自较低社会经济地位家庭,控制背景特征后效应减弱,且家庭固定效应模型和州级剂量反应分析均未支持原结论。
Almond (2006) argues that in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic reduced the 1919 birth cohort's adult socioeconomic status (SES). We show that this cohort came from lower-SES families, which is incompatible with Almond's cohort-comparison identification strategy. The adult SES deficit is reduced after background characteristics are controlled for; it is small and statistically insignificant in models that include household fixed effects. Replicating Almond's state-level dose-response analysis, we find no evidence in census data that influenza exposure reduced adult SES. Evidence from a city-level dose-response analysis on educational attainment using WWII enlistees from 287 cities is mixed.