Social externalities, endogenous childcare costs, and fertility choice
通过构建包含内生育儿成本和社会外部性的微观模型，解释了高收入国家生育率在人口转型中先降后升的倒J型趋势，模拟结果与历史数据吻合。
Abstract We reconcile the steep decline in fertility rates during the demographic transition with the fertility rebound observed in recent decades in high-income countries. The micro-foundations of the optimal choice of agents in our expanded model include endogenous childcare costs and social externalities stemming from human capital, consumption, and fertility norms. Combining these factors with the quality-quantity trade-off in fertility choice explains the inverse J-shaped relationship between fertility and economic development. Moreover, the simulated average fertility rates based on the model are reasonably consistent with the observed pattern of the evolution of the cohort fertility rates in high-income countries. Sensitivity analyses show that the model fits historical cohort fertility rates only when it includes the effects of social externalities and endogenous childcare costs.