Rapidly Evolving Technologies and Startup Exits
通过专利文本衡量创新属于快速演进还是稳定技术领域，发现快速演进领域的初创企业更可能IPO独立，稳定领域的则更倾向被收购，为投资者和创业者提供退出策略参考。
This paper examines startups’ positioning within technological cycles. We use patent text to measure whether innovation pertains to a technological area that is rapidly evolving or stable. We show that innovation in rapidly evolving areas (i.e., early in the cycle) substitute for existing technologies, whereas innovation in stable areas (i.e., later in the cycle) complement them. Our new measure is distinct from existing characterizations of innovation and is economically important. We find that startups in rapidly evolving areas tend to exit via initial public offering, thus remaining independent, consistent with technological substitution. In contrast, startups in stable areas tend to sell out, consistent with technological complementarity and synergies. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4362 .