Relocation Decisions in Uncertain Times: Brexit and Financial Services
研究了脱欧带来的不确定性如何影响金融业的地理重组，基于历史教训提出三种搬迁情景，并利用官方数据、企业报告和访谈分析伦敦金融公司向欧洲大陆五大金融中心的实际搬迁，发现企业倾向于最小必要搬迁和选择性搬迁，这强化了现有地理格局和分工。
This article examines the impact of uncertainty and profound political, economic, and regulatory changes on the process of geographic reorganization of the financial industry in the course of Brexit. It draws on historic lessons of massive relocations within the financial industry in Europe to conjecture three scenarios: (1) concentrated relocation to build a new European lead financial center (FC), (2) least necessary relocation to meet regulatory requirements for operation in the EU single market, and (3) selective relocation and cumulative functional specialization of regional FCs. Drawing on official statistics, corporate and media reports, as well as on qualitative interviews and participant observation in the field, we build an original database of published plans and confirmed practices of geographic reorganization. Our analysis of the relocations of financial service firms from London to five leading FCs on the European continent supports the least necessary relocation as well as selective relocation scenarios. We conclude that Brexit-induced reorganization actually reproduces the existing geographic architecture while simultaneously deepening the divisions of labor among the established European FCs.