Exploring the Process of Policy Overreaction: The COVID-19 Lockdown Decisions
研究了政策过度反应在紧急决策中的形成过程，基于三国对新冠疫情的应对，提出一个包含负面情绪积累、恐惧传播、同构决策和危机升级四个阶段的过程模型。
Policy overreaction is a common phenomenon, especially in complex and emergency situations where politicians are led to make decisions fast. In these emergency decisions, emotions run generally high and cognitive processes are often impaired. The conditions of policy overreaction are in place as emotions overwhelm decision makers' rational processes. Drawing on the response patterns of three countries to the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a process model of policy overreaction which describes the effects of negative emotions and institutional isomorphism on policy decision-making. Our model highlights four critical stages: negative emotions buildup, propagation of fear, isomorphic decision-making, and leading to an intractable crisis. This article shows precisely how the cascading effect of negative emotions, particularly fear, is contagious and spreads to generate crowd effects, which bend considerably policy makers' ability to make rational decisions. Our theory provides a better understanding of the process by which policy overreaction takes place.