When it Rains, it Pours: Estimating the Spatial Spillover Effect of Rainfall
利用印度家庭面板数据和高分辨率气象数据，研究发现本地降雨增加对农村家庭消费有正向影响，但邻区降雨增加会产生负向空间溢出效应，使本地降雨的正效应降低38%。
Abstract A large fraction of the world’s poor rely on rain-fed agriculture, which makes them vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns. In this paper, we examine whether spatial correlation in rainfall results in these households also being vulnerable to an adverse spatial-spillover effect. In particular, we use household-level panel data from India along with high-resolution meteorological data to show how rural household consumption varies with own-region rainfall as well as rainfall in neighboring areas. We find that while greater own rainfall has a positive effect on rural household consumption, greater rainfall in neighboring regions has an adverse spatial-spillover effect. Our results suggest that when this spillover effect is taken into account, the positive impact of own-region rainfall on household consumption falls by 38 percent.